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Covenant Monitoring Should Happen Daily, Not Quarterly

Starter Stack AI2026-02-065 min read
Risk ManagementPortfolio MonitoringPrivate Credit

The Quarterly Review is a Rear-View Mirror

Most private credit lenders and asset-based lenders review covenant compliance quarterly. The borrower submits financial statements, the portfolio team reviews them, and any breaches get flagged — typically 30–45 days after the quarter ends.

By the time a breach surfaces in this model, the underlying problem is 75–90 days old. That's not monitoring. That's archaeology.

Why Quarterly Made Sense (Until It Didn't)

Quarterly covenant reviews became standard because the inputs were manual:

  • Financial statements arrived as PDFs or spreadsheets
  • Data had to be extracted and entered into monitoring systems by hand
  • Ratio calculations required manual formula application
  • Portfolio teams could only process so many borrowers per cycle

When the bottleneck is human data entry, quarterly is the best you can do. But AI removes that bottleneck entirely.

What Daily Monitoring Looks Like

With AI-powered risk monitoring, covenant tracking becomes continuous:

  • Financial data extraction happens automatically when statements are received — or pulled directly from accounting integrations
  • Ratio calculations (DSCR, leverage, fixed charge coverage) update in real time
  • Trend analysis flags deterioration before a formal breach occurs
  • Alerts surface daily to portfolio managers, not quarterly to review committees

The result: breaches are detected 45–60 days earlier than in a quarterly model. That's the difference between a workout conversation and a write-off.

The Early Warning Value

Early detection doesn't just protect the current position. It creates options:

At 60 days before breach:

  • Renegotiate terms proactively
  • Require additional collateral
  • Adjust pricing for increased risk
  • Accelerate monitoring cadence for the specific borrower

At 0 days (breach already occurred):

  • Limited to reactive enforcement
  • Borrower may have already drawn additional capital
  • Workout negotiations happen under duress
  • Recovery rates drop significantly

According to Moody's research on middle market default recoveries, lenders who engage borrowers before formal default achieve 15–25 percentage points higher recovery rates than those who engage after.

Implementation Without Disruption

Shifting from quarterly to daily monitoring doesn't require replacing your entire risk infrastructure:

  1. Layer AI monitoring on top of existing systems — the AI reads the same financial data your team reads, just faster and more frequently
  2. Start with your highest-risk positions — concentrate daily monitoring on borrowers where deterioration would have the largest impact
  3. Keep quarterly reviews as a governance layer — daily monitoring doesn't replace formal reviews, it supplements them with continuous intelligence
  4. Train portfolio teams on alert triage — daily alerts mean more data points, so teams need a framework for prioritizing which alerts require immediate action

The Portfolio-Level Benefit

Beyond individual borrower monitoring, daily data creates portfolio-level intelligence that quarterly reviews cannot:

  • Sector-level trends emerge weeks before individual borrower problems
  • Concentration risk updates in real time as borrower health changes
  • Capital partner reporting shifts from periodic snapshots to continuous dashboards
  • Renewal pipeline becomes predictable based on covenant performance trends

One client used this portfolio-level intelligence to secure a $100M+ credit facility — the capital partners cited real-time portfolio transparency as the deciding factor.

The Cost of Waiting

Every day between a covenant deterioration and its detection is a day of unpriced risk in your portfolio. At a quarterly cadence, you're carrying 60–90 days of unpriced risk per cycle.

Daily monitoring doesn't eliminate risk. It prices it correctly, at the time it occurs, so you can act while you still have options.